No. The BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where overall labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see chapter 13 of the BLS Handbook of Methods (PDF).
Furthermore, attempts to ascribe shortages or surpluses to BLS projections are based on an incorrect comparison of the total employment and total labor force projections, two separate and fundamentally different measures. The total employment projection is a count of jobs and the labor force projection is a count of individuals. Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see page 10 of "Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context," by Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review.
The economic, employment, and labor force projections are updated every other year; the most recent projections are for 2012—22 and were released on the BLS web site in December 2013. The projections also are published in the Monthly Labor Review at the same time as the release.
The projections have a 10 year span. The current projections cover the 2012—22 decade.
No, BLS only prepares 10-year projections. Most states prepare both long- and short-term projections for their state and local areas. State projections are available from http://www.projectionscentral.com.
The fastest growing occupations can be found in this table and reflect jobs with the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.
The occupations adding the largest number of jobs can be found in this table.
The industries with the fastest growth rate can be found in this table and rank the industries with jobs experiencing the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.
The projections are available only for 2022.
BLS prepares projections only for the nation as a whole. Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input from the BLS National projections. Contact information for State labor market information offices is available at http://www.bls.gov/bls/ofolist.htm.
Employment projections from previous years are available in projections issues of the Monthly Labor Review and in archived news releases. Data files for a limited number of previous projections are available on request. Projections for previous periods are not always comparable to the 2012—22 projections, however, because of changes in industry and occupational classifications, historical data revision, and changes in projections procedures.
The historical data in the Employment Projections programs National Employment Matrix combines employment data from several different sources. Data on industries comes primarily from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. This employment is distributed to occupations using staffing patterns from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey. In addition, the matrix incorporates data for industries not covered by CES and OES agriculture and private households from the Current Population Survey (CPS), as well as employment data for self-employed and unpaid family workers. A more detailed description of data sources is available at http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
BLS evaluates its projections regularly and publishes these evaluations in the Monthly Labor Review.
The analysis underlying the BLS employment projections focuses on long-term structural change and growth and assumes a full employment economy in the target year. To the extent that recessions can cause long-term structural change, they may impact the projections. However, BLS does not project recessions.
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Last Modified Date: December 19, 2013