Employment Projections

Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

This table also can be found in the article, "The U.S. economy to 2022: settling into a new normal," published in the December 2013 Monthly Labor Review.

Other available formats: (XLS)

Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1992, 2002, 2012, and projected 2022

Exogenous variables

Billions of chained
2005 dollars
(unless noted)

Annual rate of change

1992

2002

2012

2022

1992—2002

2002—12

2012—22

Monetary policy-related:

Federal funds rate (percent)

3.5

1.7

0.1

4.6

-7.2

-21.9

41.8

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

3.5

1.6

0.1

4.4

-7.4

-25.5

48.1

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

7.0

4.6

1.8

5.3

-4.1

-9.0

11.3

Fiscal policy, tax-related:

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

21.3

22.5

21.4

21.4

0.6

-0.5

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

22.0

24.5

23.0

25.0

1.1

-0.6

0.8

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

25.1

28.0

22.5

28.0

1.1

-2.1

2.2

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

25.7

18.8

15.0

20.0

-3.1

-2.2

2.9

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

34.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related:

Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased

160.0

182.7

259.1

171.8

1.3

3.6

-4.0

Defense gross investment

67.9

59.6

97.0

75.1

-1.3

5.0

-2.5

Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased

72.9

94.5

127.7

90.2

2.6

3.1

-3.4

Nondefense gross investment

28.6

34.2

46.8

44.0

1.8

3.2

-0.6

Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

149.1

304.1

468.0

646.9

7.4

4.4

3.3

Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars)

132.6

259.2

562.0

980.3

6.9

8.0

5.7

Energy-related:

Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

20.6

26.1

94.2

129.2

2.4

13.7

3.2

Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

19.3

24.9

111.7

131.5

2.6

16.2

1.6

Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)

1.8

2.7

2.6

5.3

4.3

-0.4

7.5

Domestic oil product

2.6

2.1

2.4

3.5

-2.2

1.2

3.9

Demographic-related:

Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions)

256.9

287.9

315.0

339.2

1.1

0.9

0.7

Population aged 16 and over (in millions)

192.8

217.6

243.3

265.3

1.2

1.1

0.9

Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau; Projected data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau.

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Last Modified Date: January 2, 2014

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