Employment Projections

Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

This table also can be found in the article, "The U.S. economy to 2024," published in the December 2015 Monthly Labor Review.

Other available formats: (XLSX)

Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024

Exogenous variables

Billions of chained 2009 dollars
(unless noted)

Annual
rate of change

1994

2004

2014

2024

1994–2004

2004–14

2014–24

Monetary policy-related:

Federal funds rate (percent)

4.2

1.3

0.1

3.4

-10.7

-23.8

43.7

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

4.4

1.4

0.0

3.1

-10.8

-31.3

57.6

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

7.1

4.3

2.5

4.3

-4.9

-5.1

5.5

Fiscal policy, tax-related:

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

21.8

21.4

23.2

23.2

-0.2

0.8

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

23.4

23.0

25.0

25.0

-0.2

0.8

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

26.4

24.5

28.0

28.0

-0.8

1.4

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

24.7

15.0

20.0

20.0

-4.8

2.9

0.0

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related:

Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased

129.9

211.1

216.5

207.2

5.0

0.3

-0.4

Defense gross investment

101.1

133.2

134.1

153.3

2.8

0.1

1.3

Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased

49.7

84.7

91.4

73.3

5.5

0.8

-2.2

Nondefense gross investment

70.9

94.2

105.0

110.3

2.9

1.1

0.5

Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

166.9

332.2

501.0

749.1

7.1

4.2

4.1

Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars)

164.4

304.4

587.8

955.8

6.4

6.8

5.0

Energy-related:

Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

17.2

41.4

93.3

99.9

9.2

8.4

0.7

Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

15.8

38.2

99.0

107.3

9.2

10.0

0.8

Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)

1.7

5.4

4.0

6.5

12.0

-2.9

5.0

Domestic oil product (billions of barrels)

2.4

2.0

3.2

3.2

-2.0

4.7

0.2

Demographic-related:

Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions)

263.5

293.1

319.1

343.9

1.1

0.9

0.8

Population aged 16 and over (in millions)

196.8

223.4

247.9

269.1

1.3

1.0

0.8

Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau.

Back to top

Last Modified Date: December 8, 2015

Recommend this page using: