Economic News Release

Consumer Price Index Summary

 Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 
 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, July 17, 2015          USDL-15-1352

 Technical information: (202)691-7000  Reed.Steve@bls.gov       www.bls.gov/cpi
 Media Contact:         (202)691-5902  PressOffice@bls.gov 

 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – JUNE 2015

 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent
 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
 reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.1 percent
 before seasonal adjustment.

 The seasonally adjusted all items increase was broad-based, with advances in
 the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food all contributing. The energy index
 rose for the second straight month as the indexes for gasoline, electricity,
 and natural gas all increased. The food index posted its largest increase
 since September 2014, partly due to a sharp increase in the eggs index.

 The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June. In
 addition to the rise in the shelter index, the indexes for recreation, airline
 fares, personal care, tobacco, and new vehicles were among the indexes that
 increased in June. These advances more than offset declines in the indexes
 for medical care, household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks,
 and apparel.  

 The all items index showed a 12-month increase for the first time since
 December, rising 0.1 percent for the 12 months ending June. Despite rising in
 May and June, the energy index has still declined 15.0 percent over the past
 year. However, the indexes for food and for all items less food and energy
 have both risen 1.8 percent over the past 12 months.


 Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
 average
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                  Seasonally adjusted changes from             
                                          preceding month                      
                                                                          Un-  
                                                                       adjusted
                                                                        12-mos.
                              Dec.  Jan.  Feb.  Mar.  Apr.  May   June   ended 
                              2014  2015  2015  2015  2015  2015  2015   June  
                                                                         2015  
                                                                               
                                                                               
 All items..................   -.3   -.7    .2    .2    .1    .4    .3       .1
  Food......................    .2    .0    .2   -.2    .0    .0    .3      1.8
   Food at home.............    .2   -.2    .1   -.5   -.2   -.2    .4      1.0
   Food away from home (1)..    .3    .2    .3    .2    .2    .2    .2      3.0
  Energy....................  -4.7  -9.7   1.0   1.1  -1.3   4.3   1.7    -15.0
   Energy commodities.......  -9.0 -18.0   2.1   3.8  -1.9   9.6   3.1    -23.2
    Gasoline (all types)....  -9.2 -18.7   2.4   3.9  -1.7  10.4   3.4    -23.3
    Fuel oil (1)............  -7.8  -9.9   1.9   5.9  -8.4    .7  -1.9    -27.7
   Energy services..........    .8   -.1   -.2  -1.5   -.5  -1.0    .2     -2.9
    Electricity.............    .6    .9    .3  -1.1    .0  -1.2    .2       .0
    Utility (piped) gas                                                        
       service..............   1.4  -3.4  -2.0  -2.7  -2.6    .0    .3    -13.0
  All items less food and                                                      
     energy.................    .1    .2    .2    .2    .3    .1    .2      1.8
   Commodities less food and                                                   
      energy commodities....   -.2   -.1    .2    .3    .1   -.1   -.1      -.4
    New vehicles............    .0   -.1    .2    .2    .1    .2    .1      1.2
    Used cars and trucks....   -.8   -.1   1.0   1.2    .6   -.4   -.4      -.7
    Apparel.................   -.8    .3    .3    .5   -.3   -.5   -.1     -1.8
    Medical care commodities    .9   -.3    .7    .1    .1    .4    .0      3.3
   Services less energy                                                        
      services..............    .2    .3    .1    .2    .3    .2    .3      2.5
    Shelter.................    .2    .3    .2    .3    .3    .2    .3      3.0
    Transportation services     .0    .4    .3    .0    .1    .7    .4      1.7
    Medical care services...    .3    .1   -.2    .4    .9    .2   -.2      2.3

   1 Not seasonally adjusted.



 Consumer Price Index Data for June 2015

 Food

 The food index, which was unchanged in April and May, rose 0.3 percent in June.
 The food at home index rose 0.4 percent after declining in each of the 3
 previous months. Over three-fourths of the increase in the food at home index
 can be attributed to the eggs index, which rose 18.3 percent in June, its
 largest increase since August 1973. Led by this increase, the index for meats,
 poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.4 percent in June, with the beef index rising
 0.9 percent. The index for cereal and bakery products increased 0.5 percent,
 and the indexes for other food at home and for nonalcoholic beverages also
 rose in June. In contrast, the index for dairy and related products fell for
 the sixth consecutive month, declining 0.6 percent, and the fruits and
 vegetables index fell 0.4 percent. The index for food at home has risen 1.0
 percent over the last 12 months. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs
 has increased 3.3 percent over the last year, with the eggs index up 21.8
 percent and the index for beef rising 10.9 percent. The indexes for fruits and
 vegetables and for dairy and related products both declined 2.1 percent over
 the past year. The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in June and
 has risen 3.0 percent over the past 12 months.   


 Energy

 The energy index rose 1.7 percent in June following a 4.3 percent increase in
 May. The gasoline index, which rose 10.4 percent in May, increased 3.4 percent
 in June. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 2.5 percent in June.)
 The electricity index advanced 0.2 percent in June after declining in May. The
 index for natural gas also rose in June; its 0.3-percent advance was its first
 increase since December. The fuel oil index was the only major energy component
 index to decline in June, falling 1.9 percent. The electricity index was
 unchanged over the past 12 months, while the other energy indexes have declined.
 The fuel oil index has fallen 27.7 percent, gasoline has declined 23.3 percent,
 and natural gas has decreased 13.0 percent. 


 All items less food and energy

 The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in June
 after rising 0.1 percent in May. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in June
 and accounted for over two-thirds of the increase in the index for all items
 less food and energy. The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both
 increased 0.4 percent in June. This was the largest increase since August 2013
 for rent and since October 2006 for owners' equivalent rent. The index for
 lodging away from home, in contrast, continued to decline, falling 1.6 percent
 after a 2.0-percent decline in May. The index for airline fares rose 2.0 percent
 following a 5.7-percent increase in May. The recreation index rose 0.2 percent
 in June, its fourth consecutive increase.  The index for personal care rose 0.4
 percent, and the tobacco index increased 0.8 percent. The new vehicles index
 increased for the fifth straight month, advancing 0.1 percent. In contrast to
 these increases, the medical care index fell 0.2 percent in June as the index
 for hospital services declined 1.1 percent. The index for used cars and trucks
 fell 0.4 percent and the index for alcoholic beverages decreased 0.2 percent.
 The indexes for household furnishings and operations and for apparel both
 declined 0.1 percent. 

 The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.8 percent over the
 past 12 months. The 12-month change has remained in a range of 1.6 percent to
 2.0 percent since August 2012. The shelter index has risen 3.0 percent over
 the last year, with the rent index up 3.5 percent. The medical care index has
 increased 2.5 percent, with medical care commodities increasing 3.3 percent
 and medical care services rising 2.3 percent. 


 Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent
 over the last 12 months to an index level of 238.638 (1982-84=100). For the
 month, the index rose 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

 The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
 decreased 0.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 233.804
 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.4 percent prior to seasonal
 adjustment.  

 The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) decreased
 0.1 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index rose 0.4 percent
 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past
 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.


	
 The Consumer Price Index for July 2015 is scheduled to be released on
 Wednesday, August 19, 2015, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT). 













 Facilities for Sensory Impaired

 Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired
 individuals upon request.  Voice phone:  202-691-5200, Federal Relay
 Services:  1-800-877-8339.  

 Brief Explanation of the CPI
      
 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices
 over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor
 Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) the CPI for Urban
 Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers households of wage
 earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 28 percent of the
 total population and (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the
 Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which covers approximately 89
 percent of the total population and includes, in addition to wage earners and
 clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and
 technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and
 retirees and others not in the labor force.
      
 The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels,
 transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and
 other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are
 collected each month in 87 urban areas across the country from about 6,000
 housing units and approximately 24,000 retail establishments-department
 stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores
 and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase
 and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other
 items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other
 commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest
 geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods
 and services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls of the
 Bureau’s trained representatives.
      
 In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location
 are averaged together with weights, which represent their importance in the
 spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to
 obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W separate indexes are also
 published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications
 of regions and population-size classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes
 do not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only
 measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period.
 For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level. It is important to
 note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the
 C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
      
 The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For the CPI-U
 and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for
 the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.  An increase of 16.5 percent from the
 reference base, for example, is shown as 116.500. This change can also be
 expressed in dollars as follows:  the price of a base period market basket of
 goods and services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65. 
      
 For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
 www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis Section on
 (202)691-7000.




 Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index

 The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because
 it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of
 all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month,
 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors annually, for the CPI-U.
 These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals
 for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1
 month percent change is 0.04 percent for the U.S. All Items Consumer Price
 Index.  This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all
 retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change
 for each sample, then 95% of these estimates would be within 0.08 percent of
 the 1 month percentage change based on all retail prices.  For example, for a
 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers,
 we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all
 retail prices would fall between 0.12 and 0.28 percent. For the latest data,
 including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see
 "Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index,
 January-December 2013."  These data are available on the CPI home page
 (www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following link:
 www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2014.pdf   

 Calculating Index Changes

 Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as
 percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point
 changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period
 while percent changes are not.  The example below illustrates the computation
 of index point and percent changes.
      
 Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual rates
 and are computed according to the standard formula for compound growth rates.
 These data indicate what the percent change would be if the current rate were
 maintained for a 12-month period.

 Index Point Change

 CPI                                                 202.416
 Less previous index                                 201.800
 Equals index point change                              .616



 Percent Change

 Index point difference                                 .616
 Divided by the previous index                       201.800
 Equals                                                0.003
 Results multiplied by one hundred                  .003x100
 Equals percent change                                   0.3





 A Note on the Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

 Introduction

 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted
 data. Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by
 the X-13ARIMA-SEATS Seasonal Adjustment Method. These factors are updated each
 January, and the new factors are used to revise the previous five years of
 seasonally adjusted data. For more information on data revisions and exceptions
 to the usual revision schedule, please see the Fact Sheet on Seasonal Adjustment
 (www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisaqanda.htm) and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment
 Methodological Changes (www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiseastimeline.htm).
 
 How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

 For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted
 changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that
 normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such
 as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production
 cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus
 on changes that are not typical for the time of year.  The unadjusted data are
 of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay.
 Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many
 collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie
 compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for
 seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in
 escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.

 Intervention Analysis
 
 The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
 for some CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort
 the underlying seasonal pattern of price change. Intervention Analysis
 Seasonal Adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by such
 unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation
 of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately
 represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.
 
 2015 Series Adjusted Using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment

 For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2015, BLS adjusted 33 series
 using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and
 beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and vehicles. For example, this
 procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the effects of events
 such as the response in crude oil markets to the worldwide economic downturn
 in 2008.

 Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes
 
 Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average All items index
 levels, are subject to revision for up to five years after their original
 release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors
 for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last five years of data.
 Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last five years of data are considered
 to be final and not subject to revision. In January 2015, revised seasonal
 factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2009-2014 were calculated and
 published. For directly adjusted series, the seasonal factors for 2014 will
 be applied to data for 2015 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2015 indexes.
 
 Determining Seasonal Status

 Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain
 statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a
 series should change its status: from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally
 adjusted," or vice versa. If any of the 82 components of the U.S. city average
 all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted
 to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the
 aggregation of the dependent series for the last five years, but the seasonally
 adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. Thirty-two of the 82
 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted
 for 2015.

 Contact Information
 
 For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please write to
 the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes,
 Washington, DC 20212 or contact Christopher Graci, Justin Yarros, or Samuel An
 at (202)691-6968 or by e-mail at Graci.Christopher@bls.gov, Yarros.Justin@bls.gov
 or An.Samuel@bls.gov. If you have general questions about the CPI, please call our
 information staff at (202) 691-7000. 


































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Last Modified Date: July 17, 2015
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