For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Thursday, December 19, 2013 USDL-13-2393 Technical information: (202) 691-5700 * email@example.com * www.bls.gov/emp Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS -- 2012-2022 Occupations and industries related to healthcare are projected to add the most new jobs between 2012 and 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase 10.8 percent, or 15.6 million, during the decade. In addition to projecting employment for each detailed occupation, BLS depicts the education, related work experience, and on-the-job training typically needed for occupations. Occupations that typically require postsecondary education for entry are expected, on average, to grow faster than occupations that require a high school diploma or less. This news release focuses on several areas of projections data: labor force and the aggregate economy, industry employment, occupation employment, education and training, and replacement needs. Labor force and the aggregate economy Projections of the labor force and the aggregate economy serve as the basis for employment projections. Slower projected growth in the civilian noninstitutional population and declining labor force participation rates limit growth in the labor force, which in turn limits economic growth. --The labor force is projected to grow 0.5 percent per year from 2012 to 2022, compared with an annual growth rate of 0.7 percent during the 2002-12 decade. Due to the aging baby-boom generation, workers ages 55 and older are expected to make up over one-quarter of the labor force in 2022. (See table 1.) --Projected declines in the labor force participation rates for both men and women are expected to slow labor force growth. The overall labor force participation rate is projected to decline from 63.7 percent in 2012 to 61.6 percent in 2022, continuing the trend from the past decade. (See table 2.) --Slower labor force growth is expected to limit potential economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 2.6 percent annually from 2012 to 2022, slower than the 3 percent or higher rate often posted from the mid-1990s through mid-2000s. Industry employment BLS analyzes future demand for different types of goods and services, and then projects the employment necessary to produce them. Most of the 10.8 percent employment growth is projected to be in service- providing industries. --The health care and social assistance sector is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, adding 5.0 million jobs between 2012 and 2022. This accounts for nearly one-third of the total projected increase in jobs. The growth reflects, in part, the demand for healthcare workers to address the needs of an aging population. (See table 3.) --Employment in the construction sector is projected to grow 2.6 percent annually. This equates to 1.6 million new jobs over the 2012-22 decade, the most among goods-producing sectors and third most among all major industry sectors. (See table 3.) Despite expected fast growth, construction sector employment in 2022 is projected to be below the peak level (7.7 million; 2006). --Five industry sectors are projected to have decreases in employment: manufacturing (-549,500); federal government (-407,500); agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-223,500); information (-65,200); and utilities (-56,400). (See table 3.) Occupation employment Projected industry employment is distributed among occupations based on how industries are expected to use those occupations. --Of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest percentage increase between 2012 and 2022, 14 are related to healthcare and 5 are related to construction. (See table 4.) --The 30 occupations with the largest projected increase in employ- ment from 2012 to 2022 will account for 7.4 million new jobs, almost half of the total projected employment growth. (See table 5.) --Four major occupational groups are projected to grow more than 20 percent--nearly double the overall growth--from 2012 to 2022: health- care support occupations (28.1 percent), healthcare practitioners and technical occupations (21.5 percent), construction and extraction occupations (21.4 percent), and personal care and service occupations (20.9 percent). (See table 6.) --Every major occupational group except farming, fishing, and forestry occupations is projected to gain jobs between 2012 and 2022. (See table 6.) Education and training In addition to projecting employment for each detailed occupation, BLS depicts the education, related work experience, and on-the-job training typically needed for occupations. --Nineteen of the 30 occupations projected to grow fastest from 2012 to 2022 typically require some form of postsecondary education for entry. (See table 4.) --Two-thirds of the 30 occupations with the largest projected employment increase from 2012 to 2022 typically do not require postsecondary education for entry. (See table 5.) --Occupations typically requiring postsecondary education for entry generally had higher median wages ($57,770) in 2012 and are projected to grow faster (14.0 percent) between 2012 and 2022 than occupations that typically require a high school diploma or less ($27,670 and 9.1 percent). (See table 7.) --Occupations that do not typically require postsecondary education are projected to add 8.8 million jobs between 2012 and 2022, accounting for more than half of all new jobs. These occupations employed nearly two-thirds of workers in 2012. (See table 7.) --Occupations that typically require an apprenticeship are projected to grow 22.2 percent from 2012 to 2022, faster than any other on-the- job training assignment. (See table 7.) Replacement needs Employment growth is not the only source of job openings. BLS also projects job openings resulting from the need to replace workers who retire or otherwise permanently leave an occupation. Job openings due to replacement needs are expected in every occupation, even in those projected to decline in employment. --Over the 2012-22 decade, 50.6 million total job openings are expected. While growth will lead to many openings, more than two- thirds--67.2 percent--are projected to come from replacement needs. --In more than 4 out of 5 occupations, openings from replacement needs are projected to exceed openings from growth. --Nearly two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations that typically do not require postsecondary education for entry. (See table 7.) --Twenty-two of the 30 occupations with the largest number of projected job openings are classified as not typically requiring postsecondary education. (See table 8.) More information The BLS projections are used by high school students and their teachers and parents, college students, career changers, and career development and guidance specialists. The projections are the foundation of the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, one of the nation's most widely used career information resources. The projections are also used by state workforce agencies to prepare state and area projections that, together with the national projections, are widely used by policymakers and education and training officials to make decisions about education and training policy, funding, and program offerings. In addition, other federal agencies, researchers, and academics use the projections to understand trends in the economy and labor market. New projections are released every 2 years. More detailed information on the 2012-22 projections appears in five articles in the Monthly Labor Review. Links to these articles are available at www.bls.gov/emp/publications.htm. Tables with projections data, including but not limited to what was highlighted in this release, are available online at www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm. Detailed information about the projections methods is available at www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm. More information about the education and training system is available at www.bls.gov/emp/ep_education_training_system.htm. A graphic representation of projections highlights appears in the Winter 2013-14 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, available online at www.bls.gov/ooq. The 2014-15 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) will feature the 2012-22 projections. The OOH includes information about work activities, wages, education and training requirements, the job outlook, and more for 580 detailed occupations in 334 profiles. The updated OOH will be available online on January 8, 2014, at www.bls.gov/ooh. Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Services: (800) 877-8339.