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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

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  • Martin Kohli (646) 264-3620

Consumer Price Index, New York-Northern New Jersey – October 2013

Area prices down 0.6 percent over the month and up 1.1 percent over the year

Prices in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island area, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), fell 0.6 percent in October, following a 0.3-percent rise in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Chief Regional Economist Martin Kohli noted that the decline, the largest since December 2008, was primarily driven by lower prices for energy. (Data in this report are not seasonally adjusted. Accordingly, month-to-month changes may reflect seasonal influences.)

Over the year, the CPI-U increased 1.1 percent, and the index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent. (See chart 1. and table A. ) The 12-month increase in both indexes was primarily attributable to higher prices for shelter.

Chart 1. Over-the-year percent change in CPI-U, New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, October 2010-October 2013

Food

The food index decreased 0.4 percent, after edging up 0.2 percent in September. Prices for food at home were down 0.5 percent. Groceries with lower prices in October included soups, bread, nonfrozen juices, apples, and bananas. Prices for food away from home dropped 0.3 percent for the second consecutive month.

From October 2012 to October 2013, the food index rose 0.7 percent. (See table 1.) Prices for food at home increased 1.1 percent, and prices for food away from home increased 0.3 percent, the smallest 12-month increase since June 1994.

Energy

After rising 1.7 percent in September, the energy index fell 6.0 percent, the largest decline since November 2008. The downturn was attributable to an 11.6-percent reduction in electricity prices, due in part to the removal of seasonal surcharges. Gasoline prices also declined in October, dropping 5.5 percent. In contrast, prices for natural gas increased 1.0 percent.

Over the year, energy prices decreased 5.6 percent. Gasoline prices were 11.0 percent lower than one year earlier. Prices for energy services, however, increased over the year, with electricity up 1.3 percent and natural gas, 0.9 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October, following five months of increases ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 percent. Expenditure categories with lower prices included apparel (-1.5 percent), medical care (-0.7 percent), and new and used motor vehicles. Shelter was unchanged; a decline in out-of-town lodging offset increases of 0.3 percent for residential rent and 0.4 percent for owners’ equivalent rent. Categories with price increases included other goods and services (0.6 percent) and recreation (0.7 percent).

For the year ended in October 2013, the index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent. Prices for medical care and for residential rent increased 3.1 percent. Prices rose 1.0 percent for other goods and services, 0.6 percent for apparel, and 0.5 percent for recreation.

Table A. New York-Northern New Jersey CPI-U monthly and annual percent changes (not seasonally adjusted)
Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Monthly Annual

January

0.2 3.7 0.2 1.5 0.2 2.4 0.3 1.5 0.4 2.8 0.5 2.2

February

0.5 3.6 0.5 1.6 0.0 1.8 0.5 2.1 0.4 2.6 0.6 2.4

March

0.9 3.8 0.2 0.8 0.5 2.1 0.7 2.3 0.6 2.6 0.1 1.9

April

0.3 3.6 0.2 0.8 0.2 2.1 0.4 2.5 0.4 2.4 -0.2 1.4

May

1.0 4.0 0.2 -0.1 0.2 2.2 0.6 2.9 0.1 1.8 0.1 1.4

June

1.0 4.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.1 1.5 0.2 3.2 -0.1 1.6 0.3 1.8

July

0.7 5.1 0.2 -1.1 0.1 1.5 0.3 3.3 -0.2 1.1 0.2 2.1

August

0.1 5.4 0.3 -0.9 0.2 1.4 0.4 3.5 0.6 1.4 0.1 1.7

September

-0.2 5.2 0.1 -0.6 0.0 1.2 0.2 3.8 0.4 1.6 0.3 1.6

October

-0.7 4.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 -0.2 3.3 -0.1 1.7 -0.6 1.1

November

-1.6 2.2 0.2 1.8 0.0 1.3 -0.3 3.0 0.0 2.0

December

-0.6 1.6 -0.1 2.3 0.0 1.4 -0.4 2.7 -0.3 2.1

CPI-W

In October, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was 252.917, down 0.6 percent over the month. The CPI-W increased 0.9 percent over the year.

The November 2013 Consumer Price Index for New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, December 17, 2013 at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Impact of Federal Government Shutdown

As a result of the federal government shutdown, all CPI staff were furloughed from October 1, 2013 through October 16, 2013. Data collection, data review, and index computation commenced shortly after the end of the shutdown. In order to minimize the impact of the shutdown on the quality and timeliness of the index, resources normally devoted to maintenance and improvement work were redirected into data collection and index production. The sample of prices used to calculate the October index was about 75 percent of the amount usually used in the CPI.

Technical Note

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time in a fixed market basket of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) a CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which covers approximately 88 percent of the total population and (2) a CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which covers 29 percent of the total population. The CPI-U includes, in addition to wage earners and clerical workers, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.

The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and the other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Each month, prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 25,000 retail establishments–department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index.

The index measures price changes from a designated reference date (1982-84) that equals 100.0. An increase of 16.5 percent, for example, is shown as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a base period "market basket" of goods and services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65. For further details see the CPI home page on the Internet at www.bls.gov/cpi and the BLS Handbook of Methods, Chapter 17, The Consumer Price Index, available on the Internet at www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch17_a.htm.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged together with weights that represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. Because the sample size of a local area is smaller, the local area index is subject to substantially more sampling and other measurement error than the national index. In addition, local indexes are not adjusted for seasonal influences. As a result, local area indexes show greater volatility than the national index, although their long-term trends are quite similar. NOTE: Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices between cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period.

The New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Conn.-Pa. consolidated area covered in this release is comprised of Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester Counties in New York State; Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren Counties in New Jersey; Fairfield County and parts of Litchfield, Middlesex, and New Haven Counties in Connecticut; and Pike County in Pennsylvania.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; Federal Relay Service: 800-877-8339.

Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Indexes and percent changes for selected periods, New York-Northern N.J.-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT-PA (1982-84=100 unless otherwise noted) (not seasonally adjusted)
Item and Group Indexes Percent change from-
Aug.
2013
Sept.
2013
Oct.
2013
Oct.
2012
Aug.
2013
Sept.
2013

Expenditure category

All items

257.659 258.504 257.069 1.1 -0.2 -0.6

All items (1967=100)

744.855 747.300 743.150

Food and beverages

246.641 247.219 246.279 0.7 -0.1 -0.4

Food

246.333 246.934 245.912 0.7 -0.2 -0.4

Food at home

245.771 247.425 246.255 1.1 0.2 -0.5

Food away from home

253.645 252.886 252.030 0.3 -0.6 -0.3

Alcoholic beverages

247.151 247.395 247.608 -0.3 0.2 0.1

Housing

271.752 272.914 271.244 2.0 -0.2 -0.6

Shelter

334.052 334.162 334.321 2.6 0.1 0.0

Rent of primary residence (1)

339.926 340.556 341.629 3.1 0.5 0.3

Owners' equivalent rent of residences (1) (2)

339.596 340.679 341.929 2.6 0.7 0.4

Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence (1) (2)

339.422 340.509 341.759 2.7 0.7 0.4

Fuels and utilities

199.830 208.295 196.431 0.2 -1.7 -5.7

Household energy

195.483 204.988 191.642 0.0 -2.0 -6.5

Energy services (1)

180.038 190.853 175.731 1.2 -2.4 -7.9

Electricity (1)

186.623 201.757 178.410 1.3 -4.4 -11.6

Utility (piped) gas service (1)

161.433 163.331 165.024 0.9 2.2 1.0

Household furnishings and operations

120.029 119.193 118.865 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3

Apparel

125.888 130.543 128.599 0.6 2.2 -1.5

Transportation

232.390 231.622 228.844 -1.3 -1.5 -1.2

Private transportation

219.650 218.840 215.657 -2.4 -1.8 -1.5

Motor fuel

293.487 288.850 273.313 -10.9 -6.9 -5.4

Gasoline (all types)

292.538 287.786 272.028 -11.0 -7.0 -5.5

Gasoline, unleaded regular (3)

295.062 289.978 273.633 -11.5 -7.3 -5.6

Gasoline, unleaded midgrade (3) (4)

294.479 290.624 275.821 -10.3 -6.3 -5.1

Gasoline, unleaded premium (3)

289.496 285.704 271.835 -9.3 -6.1 -4.9

Medical care

427.025 429.941 426.844 3.1 0.0 -0.7

Recreation (5)

119.478 118.414 119.264 0.5 -0.2 0.7

Education and communication (5)

141.167 141.337 141.379 0.8 0.2 0.0

Other goods and services

395.702 395.923 398.320 1.0 0.7 0.6

Commodity and service group

All items

257.659 258.504 257.069 1.1 -0.2 -0.6

Commodities

194.598 195.066 193.053 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0

Commodities less food and beverages

159.839 160.230 157.796 -2.8 -1.3 -1.5

Nondurables less food and beverages

204.694 205.810 201.605 -3.4 -1.5 -2.0

Durables

102.976 102.545 102.184 -1.3 -0.8 -0.4

Services

311.734 312.903 311.958 2.4 0.1 -0.3

Special aggregate indexes

All items less medical care

250.192 250.959 249.591 1.0 -0.2 -0.5

All items less shelter

227.837 228.972 226.908 0.3 -0.4 -0.9

Commodities less food

163.466 163.855 161.490 -2.7 -1.2 -1.4

Nondurables

228.123 228.997 226.301 -1.3 -0.8 -1.2

Nondurables less food

207.614 208.684 204.720 -3.2 -1.4 -1.9

Services less rent of shelter (2)

298.197 300.593 298.376 2.3 0.1 -0.7

Services less medical care services

302.354 303.438 302.602 2.4 0.1 -0.3

Energy

235.864 239.829 225.512 -5.6 -4.4 -6.0

All items less energy

261.608 262.151 261.979 1.7 0.1 -0.1

All items less food and energy

266.055 266.590 266.581 1.9 0.2 0.0

Footnotes
(1) This index series was calculated using a Laspeyres estimator. All other item stratum index series were calculated using a geometric means estimator.
(2) Index is on a December 1982=100 base.
(3) Special index based on a substantially smaller sample.
(4) Indexes on a December 1993=100 base.
(5) Indexes on a December 1997=100 base.

NOTE: Index applies to a month as a whole, not to any specific date.
The New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT-PA consolidated area comprises the five boroughs of New York City, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, Dutchess, and Orange Counties in New York State; Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Monmouth, Middlesex, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren Counties in New Jersey; Fairfield County and parts of Litchfield, New Haven, and Middlesex Counties in Connecticut; and Pike County in Pennsylvania.

Last Modified Date: December 17, 2013

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